February 4, 2010 - A Look at the Morning Models

By: Mallory Brooke
By: Mallory Brooke

The winter storm is on the way - here's a look at what models are saying this morning.

Here we are again, more snow! Winter storm warnings were just issued for the Valley starting Friday morning and lasting all the way through Saturday evening. National Weather Service expects amount of 16"-24".

Models have come into better agreement (sort of) since yesterday. The WRF has backed off the crazy amounts of liquid (at one point over 3" for the Valley) and come down to about 2.1", with the GFS model steady at about 1.6". The start time of the storm has also been an ever changing variable. Usually models are a little slow on start times. Right now start times are between 7am and 11am, so we should expect light snow to start between 4am and 6am in Augusta County. The precipitation will move from south to north, therefore the northern Valley will see the snow just before lunch.

The heaviest snow is expected during evening rush hour Friday through the wee hours of Saturday morning. We'll have a brief lull in the precipitation during the mid morning hours of Saturday as the coastal low begins to strengthen off the coast. Another round of moderate snow will move through the Valley Saturday afternoon as Atlantic moisture fuels snow production.

I'll update again later on this afternoon. I'm going on the conservative side of snowfall totals as of now, 13"-18", with localized amounts over 24 inches. In addition, I'll have some quotes from Chris Strong of the National Weather Service - information both on this storm and the winter as a whole.

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