February 5, 2010 - Morning Update On Winter Storm 2010

By: Mallory Brooke
By: Mallory Brooke

A look at the morning models and any changes they are indicating along with conditions throughout the Valley.

8:00 am Update:

Hello Valley! I know the snow can be a hassle, but it's also very exciting. This storm has the potential to rank on the top 5 snowstorms of all time in the Valley and DC Metro area. Apparently the 1880's were a great snow decade, because we can't break any of our local records this year. December 1880 gave us our record of 30"  for the month (WHSV Harrisonburg ended up with 26 inches) and our February record is from 1889 with 42.5". While we may not break records for the month, this storm will rank high on the individual storm list. Our weather watchers have very detailed climate histories of the area so we'll be in touch with you about how this storm ranks in your particular area.

Our average February snowfall is 7" - I think we'll be above average. Just a hunch.

OK - to the morning models. The 6z WRF (which has been over the top the past few days) brought 2.62 inches of liquid to the Rockingham County area, closer to 3" of liquid on the eastern fringes of Warren and Clarke Counties and over 3.5 inches of liquid to the DC Metro Area. That would be interesting. Ratios look to stay at 10:1 for the majority of the storm. They may increase slightly as colder air moves in Saturday morning. All models are still pointing to more liquid output from this storm, therefore those locally heavy amounts of 30"+ are very much possible.

The heart of the heavy snowfall will occur late Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Models are indicating 2" PER HOUR snowfall rates from 11pm Friday through 4am Saturday and 1" PER HOUR snowfall rates from 8pm - 11pm Friday and 4am - 12pm Saturday. This would be the time to stay home and watch movies, drink hot cocoa, etc. I'm even camping out at the station so I don't have to drive here Saturday morning for the special Saturday edition of Daybreak.

Snow started falling around 4:45am in Churchvile, 5:20 am at SHD, 5:30am in Waynesboro, 6:00am in Harrisonburg, 6:20am in Fishersville, 7:00am in Mathias, and 8:00am in Luray. Still no snow in Woodstock or Winchester at the 8:00am hour.

We are asking all of you to give us your snowfall amounts and keep us updated from across the Valley! If you have any questions, feel free to email me or message me on facebook. Stay warm and safe outside!!

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