One thing about the weather - it always repeats itself - clearly. We had snow on Jan 30/31, February 2/3, February 5/6, and now more expected for February 9/10. We're clearly on a pattern, but the good news (if you're not enjoying the almost 3 seasons worth of snow) is that the precipitation pattern looks to break after this coming snow.
What we're looking at are two systems phasing over the central Plains today and continue to move eastward. A coastal low will develop overnight Tuesday, fueling more snowfall, especially to our east. Hardest hit areas from this storm will be closer to the eastern seaboard - the DC/Delmarva to Eastern PA/New Jersey and NYC/Long Island.
But that doesn't mean we won't have winter weather issues here in the Valley. Winter storm warnings have just been posted for the Valley and higher elevations. The initial forecast called for the dry slot to move through the southern Valley with the storm, but morning models have indicated that the dry slot will stay farther south and slightly east due to the coastal low developing farther south. Several models indicate this, as well as a slightly wetter solution. Liquid amounts remain in the 0.50"- 0.75" range across the Valley with 10:1 ratios.
There still are some caveats with the system. Once again, warm air is available in the mid-levels, giving the southern Valley the opportunity to mix or change to sleet. In addition to the dry slot, this is likely why Augusta County has not yet been added winter storm warning.
Of course, the dry slot is still something to be watched with the storm. The hardest hit areas of this weekends storms will be the hardest hit once again. Snowfall amounts will likely be marginal (in terms of winter storm warning criteria, 5" or more) in Augusta County. However, snowfall amounts will likely increase from south to north. Based on current models, the central Valley is looking at 5"- 8", with the northeastern Valley closer to 12". Computer models still have another run or two to get themselves together - and of course I'll let you know the latest right here on my blog!