Dealing with Ice?

Hopefully everyone enjoyed the temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s this weekend! The chance for winter weather is back in the forecast and it is getting here quickly.

A cold front moved through the area this morning and it will stall to the southeast of the Valley for the next two days. Several disturbances will ride along the front (primarily Monday night and Tuesday night) and they will bring rain and the threat for freezing rain through parts of our area.

This is not a perfect picture of what will happen, but this does outline some areas of most concern.

Cold air is pushing in from the northwest, but with some warm air wedged at the surface, most of our area will stay above freezing. Everything will fall as rain and the roads and sidewalks will only be wet. These are the areas colored in green.

However, at higher elevations, temperatures are likely to fall below freezing. This will be true along the Blue Ridge on the eastern side of the viewing area, and especially in western Rockingham and Shenandoah Counties, as well as Highland, Pendleton, Grant and Hardy Counties (most of the area colored in pink).

Temperatures will be the coldest farther north and west. Fortunately, that is also where we will see the least precipitation. Thus, even where we have freezing rain, ice accumulation should be minimal.

Here is a look at the
suggested rain totals for one particular model. The heaviest rain clearly stays to the southeast.

Overall, this is going to a small event and total ice accumulation should be minimal. It will  be something to be on the look out for early Tuesday morning.

Stay safe, especially at the higher elevations.

There is a good chance we will be looking at a very similar set up for Tuesday night.

Your weather team will be watching this very closely over the next few days.

Rain totals through this first half of the week will be ranging from 2"+ in the Southern Valley and around 0.50" in the Northern Valley.