The first of a few systems that we have our eyes on will move into the Valley Thursday. Computer models have been flip flopping on this a little bit with the track, but the latest track does bring us the possibility of accumulating snow, especially in the southern Valley (Augusta/Rockingham).
I've been able to glimpse at the morning models and likely will not change accumulations posted this morning on Daybreak. Looking at isolated amounts of 3" in southern Augusta County, 1-2" through portions of Augusta/Rockingham, and a dusting - 1" into Page & Shenandoah Counties. One model run, the WRF brought higher amounts of snow the region but other models are not following suit, therefore I'm going to stay conservative on my estimates. The GFS stayed on par with the previous runs, and the Canadian & Euro won't come in until 12:30pm.
One thing that has changed is the timing, I was looking at more of a 8-9am time frame, and that looks to have shifted more towards a 6-7am time frame in the southern Valley. Let me say again, that models have handled this system rather poorly so we will be staying on top of it for you! One thing we are certain of - all precipitation will fall as snow. Areas to our south and west will be dealing with icing and rain as some warm air nudges in.
Stay tuned to WHSV for the latest on this minor snow event. If anything changes significantly, I'll update the blog!