I've been glued to the weather models all day long - thus getting caught up and almost forgetting to update the blog! Sorry it's later than usual!
So the one model that has been really "over excited" about this system, the Euro, continues to be over excited. It seemed like the outlier in the Tuesday evening models - until the Wednesday morning models started to think twice.
The GFS, a model that has been taking the storm out to sea for the past 48 hours, trended 100 miles west on the morning model run - a huge shift in 12 hours. It's still about 100-150 miles east of where the Euro is, but we still have 4 days to go (Let's not forget, models didn't pick up on our 2009 Blizzard until 48 hours before the event). It still doesn't bring much precipitation to the Valley, but the Wednesday evening models & Thursday morning models should be able to come to a better agreement with the energy now onshore in California.
The Canadian (CMC) continues with its "out to sea" solution. While consistent, the GFS & Euro tend to be stronger when it comes to forecasting for our area. When the CMC agrees with the GFS & Euro, it's great guidance. When it differs, I keep it in the back of my head, but I tend to lean towards the GFS & Euro.
The WRF model only goes out to 84 hours, therefore the system wouldn't be in our neck of the woods by then. However, there are decent differences in the strength of the energy and position of the low pressure center from the morning model to the afternoon model that suggests a trend towards the GFS.
Should there be significant changes overnight, I'll have two blogs tomorrow! One with overnight model data and one with morning model data.
Stay tuned to my blog for the very latest!