December 24, 2010 - Another Day, Another Shift

By: Mallory Brooke
By: Mallory Brooke

It seems as though computer models are as chaotic as the airports this holiday season - constant changes, delays, shifts - read all about it in this Christmas Eve blog!

What would a storm be without a few, or several bumps in the road? I know we all have festivities to attend to this evening so I'll keep this rather brief. No worries though, I'll keep you updated throughout the weekend with blogs here and there.

The one major change in the models comes with the GFS model and it started in the morning model suite, bringing the system significantly more west than the previous model runs. While it doesn't affect the Valley very much, this is a huge shift for areas near DC, Baltimore, and of course up the I-95 corridor. Should this play out, anyone traveling to those areas will have significant issues returning on Sunday & Monday.

Now - disclaimer: There still is very little agreement within the models. Even the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) seems a bit confused, issuing this statement in their Model Diagnostics Discussion: "THE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS BY ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN QUESTION" (HPC regularly discusses the models and determines which ones seem to best fit the current pattern).

Other models, like the Euro & CMC, have continued with the out to sea path and only affect the extreme coastal areas.

As mentioned, this doesn't make significant changes in our forecast. We may have some extra scattered snow showers Sunday & Monday, but unless you're heading east for the holiday weekend, the storm will not impact you.

Stay updated with my blogs throughout the weekend!

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