Good afternoon everyone - not too much has changed in the forecast.
Looking at a mostly rain event for the majority of the Valley, with rain approaching the higher elevations by 8pm tonight and getting into the Valley around 10pm. Areas in central Shenandoah County and north may see freezing rain at the onset, however warm air will erode our cold air damming (CAD) from south to north.
Areas closer to the Mason-Dixon line will see the most ice accumulation through Wednesday morning. Shenandoah, Grant, Hardy, Frederick, Clarke and Warren Counties are under a Freezing Rain Advisory from 9pm tonight through 7am Wednesday morning for one to two tenths of ice accumulation before all precipitation changes over to rain.
Being that we're in the mid 40's right now in the central and southern Valley, I see the chance of ice here at about 1%. Winchester Regional Airport is at 37 degrees, therefore they still have the possibility of actually getting temperatures at or below the freezing mark tonight when winds shift back towards the east.
If you have any questions - ask away!