High pressure has just taken over this week and given us beautiful clear skies, plentiful sunshine, and warm temperatures during the day. A cold front will move through the area late Friday night. However, there's not a lot of moisture associated with this front, so at best a few showers could be realized. The real weather story will be the beginning of next week.
A developing system to our south, along the Gulf Coast will slide closer to our area Sunday night. Currently, the timing is still uncertain with this system, but it looks like things are coming together for some good measurable rain between Monday and Tuesday.
Start time for the rain is still up in the air. Two of our most reliable long-range models are the GFS and the Euro, you may have heard of them. (The GFS is the American Model)
Here is a side by side comparison of the onset of rain with both models:
Model runs from Wednesday had major differences, but now they are agreeing on a Monday start time.
The Euro is a little slower with the rain, beginning sometime early Monday afternoon. (18Z is 2 p.m. EDT).
However, the GFS brings in the rain by early Monday morning (12Z is 8 a.m. EDT).
The GFS and the Euro both agree on the timing for our heaviest rain.
Both try to bring it through Tuesday morning.
Here is a side by side comparison of Tuesday morning from both models.
Although not identical, they look similar. However, I am a bit suspicious of how much more rain the Euro tries to bring in.
Expect some measurable rain at least Monday through Tuesday. There is more confidence with this system because it is coming up from the south, which means there will be less interaction with mountainous topography. This is the general path that some of our most soaking rains and deepest snowfalls travel.
The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is expecting between 1.5" - 2"+ throughout our area. The Euro is suggesting the same amounts with more accumulation for our higher elevations to the west, while the GFS is suggesting 2"+ in the Valley with slightly less rain for the higher elevations.
Could there still be some changes? Of course. Details are still being worked out but get those umbrellas ready!