January 22, 2011 - Not Getting Excited

By: Mallory Brooke
By: Mallory Brooke

Models diverge on the morning runs...read about it in today's blog!

Good afternoon everyone! I know there are other outlets that are getting excited about this upcoming system for the I-81 corridor. But it may be a little too early for that..

Let's break it down - the GFS takes the typical track for this year...off to sea and then into New England - no precip in our area. The Canadian took the wayyyy western path of the low track, which brings a ton of precipitation in the area but mostly rain, which is typical with tracks that are too far west. Unfortunately for the snow lovers out there, the one model that was nailing us with snow, the Euro, has trended more towards the GFS and brings us a few snow showers in the latest run.

As I've been mentioning, it's easy to get excited with the thought of big snow but with the models this year, we just can't jump on it so early. Right now there is a huge gap in the model outputs, with one so far west that we get 3" of plain rain and one so far east that we get nothing! I think we still need to wait until tomorrow afternoon to really nail things down.

Because of the pattern we've been in, and what has happened in the past, I have to lean more towards a dry solution for us. There's still 4 days - lots can change! But if I had to nail something down now, I'd go with the consistent forecast this past winter - not much, if any snow for the Valley.

I won't be able to update again until tomorrow afternoon - so expect the next blog around this time Sunday. Stay warm!

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