Alright folks, I'm not sounding the alarm just yet, but I would make sure that you're prepared for the upcoming week's potential mess. We're not talking Blizzard of '09 or Snowmageddon, but we will definitely be impacted.
What has changed since this time yesterday is that models have closed the gap, a least a little, in the range of where the low pressure will pass through in Virginia. For us to see a mainly snow, and decent snow event, low pressure would have to pass just south of Norfolk. For wintry precipitation in general, low pressure would pass between Richmond and Norfolk. And of course, anything west of that would bring rain.
While some model solutions are not likely, like the GFS (little far east) and the CMC (way far west), the general shift has been that colder air hangs in the Valley a little bit longer than yesterday's runs were showing. It seems like the 12z Euro yesterday was an outlier and glitch in the runs, with the 0z Euro coming back towards the west -same with the 12z Euro. The issue is that while warm air infiltrates the mid levels of the atmosphere, the surface layer would stay dammed (cold air damming) and likely just below freezing. Both the Euro and WRF show this.
What I'm getting that is that two main models came up with a decent ice solution for the Valley as we go through early Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. I think we'll start to see further continuity as we go through tonight's model runs and especially Monday morning models. As we know well, it doesn't take much ice to cause us issues.
Feel free to ask questions and chat!
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