January 24, 2011 - Wintry Mess Wednesday

By: Mallory Brooke
By: Mallory Brooke

Here's a quick model discussion from the morning models...

Hey everyone! Here's a quick model discussion from the morning models.

GFS - keeps temperatures at or below freezing the entire time bringing us a mix of freezing rain and snow through the day on Wednesday. Ice accumulations would be minimal but we could get a few inches of snow at the end of it.

CMC - still keeps temperatures warm and would bring some rain to the Valley during the day Wednesday and then back to snow Wednesday night with minor snow accumulation possible

WRF - temperatures remain on either side of the freezing mark, therefore we'd see and rain and snow mix initially with more plain snow on the backside of the system

Euro - A mix of rain and snow to start with a very fast accumulating snow on the backside of the system. This could easily bring 6"+ snow to the Valley in a very short period of time.

Keep in mind that most models don't talk to much about ice accumulations but I do think that it is a real possibility if the surface stays below 32 degrees and temperatures aloft rise above freezing.

Here's what I'm thinking - which is similar to what I thought earlier today. If temperatures can drop below freezing Tuesday night, which I'm skeptical of, we'll see a mostly frozen event with an ice/snow mix to start (very light precip from Wed morning through Wed evening) and a solid snow on the backside of the system. If temperatures can't get below freezing Tuesday night, which is honestly the more likely case with a high in the mid 40's projected on Tuesday (with cloud cover, we know how that affects temps at night), I think we'll see a more rain/snow mix through Wed morn into the event, with once again another shot of plain snow on the backside of the system.

Now, there's still hope for us who want some snow out of this, some models do put out 4-6" on the backside of the storm. However, I will remain conservative for now and say 1-2"...if we're lucky. Remember everything else that has happened this winter folks, it's not an I-81 winter of snow like it was last year.

Feel free to ask questions - and don't forget to sign up for text updates about my blog!

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