Alright everyone - down to business.
This morning turned out as planned - a messy mix of ice, snow, rain, and where it was 32 or below, freezing rain. It was definitely location dependent - as we had facebook friends mentioning 33 or 34 degrees in Elkton, whereas we had 30.5º in Harrisonburg and 29 º in Franklin, WV - where I heard from our weather watcher Dave that roads are absolutely treacherous.
One down, another to go.
This next part of the system is the upper level low pressure and it still makes me nervous! It looks like we're getting more banding structures in WV this morning and we should start to see precipitation falling again by 10am again in Augusta county. This may still be a mix of sleet and/or freezing rain as a warm layer hangs on in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere.
Latest sounding (12z) from Roanoke shows the warm bubble of 1-2ºC hanging on in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere. However, the sounding at Dulles shows an all snow solution right now. I know Winchester was also seeing mostly snow this morning, which means that warm bubble is eroding as you head north.
NWS has increased amounts in the Valley to 5-10". With the warm nose still in tact in ROA, I'm hesitant to increase my totals. If we start as ice when the next batch gets here, that will cut down on our snow totals. I'm going to stick with current totals, 4-7" with isolated areas of 9"+ in the mountains. Unless 12z data brings in something drastically different, which I doubt, they'll stay intact.
In addition, the GFS model has put us in a bit of a dry slot. While this is a certain, we have enough evidence coming in that we should still see at least .50" total liquid - which would still give 4" of snow.
I think we'll start to see light precipitation moving back into the southern Valley by 10am as the upper level low pressure system approaches.
This is very "weather nerd"-esque, but I'm going to attach a link to a water vapor loop. This is the best way to view upper level disturbances, and this one is a beauty.