January 6, 2011 - Calm Before The...Storms???

By: Mallory Brooke
By: Mallory Brooke

A few upper level disturbances will move through over the next several days but overall the Valley is rather tranquil - until next week. Read all about it in today's blog!

I didn't receive any comments on the last blog about teleconnections - hopefully it was easy to understand. Remember, ask questions if you need to!

As I mentioned in the teleconnections blog - interesting things tend to happen with the NAO begins sharply increasing/decreasing, and at peaks. Beginning this weekend, the NAO quickly moves toward positive territory with a peak around Jan 11/12, and then moves quickly back down into negative territory. This means that this weekend (snow in NY/NJ), the Jan 11/12 time frame (already looking at possible coastal), and the Jan 16 time period (NAO shooting toward negative values) are prime times for something intense. It doesn't necessarily mean that it will occur in the Valley, but it will occur somewhere along the eastern seaboard.

That being said - let's discuss the next few days. Thursday through Saturday give the Valley a slight chance of flurries as several upper level disturbances rotate around the low pressure system in Canada. Most of the snowfall will remain west of us (in the higher elevations), however we can't rule out some passing flurries or a snow showers, especially east of the Blue Ridge Friday & Saturday morning. Heavy snows will remain to our NE has a Norlun trough sets up and brings intense snows to Long Island, the Hudson Valley and into the central NY mountains. We'll talk more about Norlun troughs in tomorrow's blog.

Sunday will be another "calm" day for us before clouds build in Monday ahead of our next storm system. As models have been doing all season long - they are disagreeing. At this 5-6 day time period, models do funny things. The energy has yet to reach the west coast, which means there is zero upper air data for this piece of the storm. That usually happens 48-72 hours prior to an event and models tend (not always) to come into better agreement with strength and track of the storm. Remember how fast the December 2009 Blizzard came about? Models didn't handle the upper data correctly until it hit the west coast. And then, well, we hit the stores to stock up.

Even if the storm does develop, it's not going to be a repeat of last season. We're just not in the right setup for that. Should we see any snow, my feeling is that it will be around 3-4". Not too much, but enough to make it pretty and for kids to get a snow day (I always get that question!). Biggest impacts would once again be around the I-95 corridor.

We also have indications that storms may set up for Jan15/16 and once again Jan 19/20. However, that's *very* far out and I won't discuss it anymore until we get through Tuesday's event.

Will keep you updated!

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