We've been seeing a lot of flip flopping in the models over the past several days, but now that the energy has come onshore, it looks like there's a bit more agreement.
The WRF model seems to be picking up on the energy a little bit better. This system is going to be a case where the northern stream system (one come across the Midwest & Ohio Valley) is stronger than the southern stream system (coastal low moving up coast) by the time it gets to the Valley. The snow associated with the southern stream stays a little too far east of us until we start to get the energy transfer from the northern stream system. What we'll see is a "double barrel low" situation setup with two low pressures side by side as the energy mixes through. That's going be our best shot of seeing snow - with the energy transfer.
The GFS, CMC (canadian), and even the Euro have done there fair share of flip flopping over the past several days and have similar solutions with some minor differences. All in all it looks like we'll see .25-.35" of liquid come down in the Valley, with amounts closer to .40" in the northern Valley (from the coastal low strengthening). With average ratios, we're looking at another 2-3" in the Valley with isolated areas of 4". Amounts will be similar to the mid-December snow we had, but the setup is very different.
Of course I'll keep everyone updated here! Next update on Sunday :)