Peak of Hurricane Season: Will it Still be an Active Year?

September 10th is the peak of hurricane season, but is an active year still expected?


It's been a quiet hurricane season, so far. September 10th is climatolically the peak of the season, so are we still be on track to see an above average season. That means September 10th is the most likely day for a hurricane to form.

Remit only takes one storm to create devestation.

At the beginning of August NOAA updated it's forecast and still says that "The season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active."
But that forecast doesn't predict landfall.

Two of the main reasons an active season is expected is first due to warm sea surface temperatures, already in place this past spring. The second driving reason is the lack of an El Nino.

El Nino can create an unfavorable environment for tropical development, so without that pattern in place, that leaves an environment that could help tropical development.

Some of the main reasons this hurricane season has been uneventful is first due to African dust. Dust coming off the Sahara desert will basically suffocate an impending storm. Large areas of dry air don't allow for enough moisture to be fed into a possible storm.

There have been 8 named storms so far this year, with very little impact to the US.
Normal is 12 named storms for a season.

Most recently in 2001, 12 storms formed on or after September 1st. Yet only one of those made landfall in the US.

Many storms that have hit the area have hit in September or later. Hurricane Fran hit September 6th, 1996. Last year hurricane Sandy was an October storm. Not just an October storm but an end of October storm.

Even though it seems like an inactive season, it only takes one storm to wreak havoc. We may even have our first hurricane of the season on Wednesday. Tying the latest date for a hurricane to form, the record is September 11th, 2002.

You still have time to make sure that you are prepared. Even simple things like having batteries, and bottled water can help. Try to prepare for any kind of flooding, or if power would be out for several days.
  
Hurricane season ends November 30.

Follow Meteorologist Aubrey Urbanowicz WHSV on Facebook and Twitter.

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