Tuesday is a Severe Weather Alert Day, and that means you need to pay close attention to the weather. Things are setting up to be an active day, and while we cannot guarantee severe weather to happen, the potential exists and ingredients are setting up.
Timing would be in the afternoon and evening. A cold front is to our north. Temperatures will be hot and muggy, in the upper 80s and 90 degrees for some.
We should see ample sunshine for the first half of the day which will help de-stabilize the atmosphere. Dew points are important, Monday dew posits were between 68 and 70 degrees meaning lots of available moisture, and muggy conditions! It looks like for Tuesday dew points will stay high if not maybe a degree or two higher.
This is the risk put out by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Ok for Tuesday.
This was issued about noon on Monday.
I expect this area to be updated, and possibly changed but in general we are in the slight risk (15%) of severe storms for Tuesday, with the strongest storms in the red area to our south.
Damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threat but large hail not out of the question.
15% doesn't sound like a lot, but the SPC reserves it's biggest threats for severe outbreaks. As a Meteorologist, when your in the "Slight Risk" area, heads up.
Basically we have some strong southerly winds continuing to usher in warm moist air. Instability will be high. However, we are also looking at the upper levels.
Upper level winds are forecasted to be pretty strong for Tuesday.This next image is from Penn State's E-wall.
The two images on the left are upper level winds.
The top is 500mb which is about 18,000 feet high up in the atmosphere.
The bottom is 700mb which is roughly 10,000 feet. (Or cruising altitude for planes).
Both show winds from the Northwest. This indicated that storms should be coming in from the northwest and the strong upper levels winds will steer them southeast.
Why is this important? The red and pink colors indicate some pretty strong upper level winds, which can be transported down to the surface in the downdrafts of thunderstorms.
The other larger image on the right is one of our forecast models, the NAM and it's interpretation of what precip might look like about 2pm Tuesday afternoon. This could indicate a cluster of thunderstorms for the afternoon. An updated run of this model came out earlier this evening but that particular run isn't always that trust worthy. A new run should come out by 11pm, it will be interesting to see what that shows!
Let's also remember that there are STILL weakened tree limbs from the June 29th storms. So keep that in mind. It's important to pay attention to any thunderstorm warnings if they are issued.
A severe thunderstorms watch if issued, means that conditions are favorable for storms to form. Many times this is issued while skies are sunny, and temperatures are warm, leadingg many people to wonder what is going on.
A severe thunderstorm warning is issued when a storm is on the verge of becoming increasingly strong. Meaning winds 58mph or higher, or hail larger than quarters, or a rotating updraft.
Sometimes thunderstorms become really strong, but not severe, and those are still dangerous. A thunderstorm with heavy rain and winds of 45 mph may not technically be a severe storm, but that can create some damage, and hazardous driving!
If you haven't signed up for text alerts, it's a great idea to do so. You can do that here http://www.whsv.com/mobile/headlines/84063062.html
Those warnings are especially helpful if power goes out, and you can't get to a tv or computer.
We have updated our weather page also, you can use the interactive radar to zoom in or out as far as you want to see the area.
Also on our weather page, one of the boxes at the top says WARNINGS.
That is all the local warnings for our area that are issued by the National Weather Service. So a good resource to keep up with.