Rain, Finally?

So Where is all the Rain?

Let's take a look at some numbers first. I was almost afraid that some parts of our area would be classified as being in a drought when the US Drought Monitor was released today.

Good news is that for our area, it's not any worse.

Here is the new drought monitor and we are still classified as "abnormally dry."

Looking at the numbers under the current line, follow that over to the yellow.

88.80 means that about 89% of the state is classified as "abnormally dry."

That's compared to 91% last week.

Slight improvements, baby steps we're making, but keep in mind most of this has happened over the last few months.

Compared to the start of the year only about 1.5% of the state of Virginia was classified as "abnormally dry."

So yes, everyone is in agreement we need the rain, especially after 10 days of temperatures in the 90s! We originally had some good news in the forecast from last week, where it looked like the stationary front was going to position itself closer to the Virginia/North Carolina border and that was going to bring us better chances for rain this week. Unfortunately, that front sagged a little more to the south into the Carolina's, so that is why we had lowered our chances for rain and only a few lucky areas were able to see a few isolated showers this week. So sorry folks, sometimes that happens. The weather changes and we have no control over it.

As of Thursday night moisture is moving up over the front through eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia. This is bringing the moisture closer to our area but it doesn't look like we see any decent rain until Friday night, and then scattered chances through the day on Saturday.

So the good news is yes rain is coming, but not enough. Here is a look at what we refer to as Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts put out by the National Weather Service.

Sometimes this can serve as a guide as to how much rainfall to expect.

Want to know who's hogging all of our rain?

Well look at Tennessee, Kentucky, and western West Virginia! Probably well over 3" of rain in some areas.

That will only leave us with some scattered chances for rain through the weekend.

By the end of the weekend, we are forecasting that most of the area could only pick up about .10" to .25" of rain although it is possible for some isolated areas to see more, especially to the west or where we do see any thunderstorm activity. This is the best we can do unfortunately.

There will still be some lingering chances for rain into next week, especially with the possibility of some pop up thunderstorms.

I think our chances for any flooding will be slim. There is always the chance with the dry ground that any heavy rainfall over one area could cause run-off that would cause some flooding. As always we will monitor this but it's not looking likely. We'll gladly take what we can get at this point, that's for sure.

I don't see us heading into "drought " status though. I think we are going to receive just enough rain to prevent that, and probably dry out again. We could possibly see a few chances of rain just enough to keep us categorized as dry, but not enough satisfy the ground.

Follow Meteorologist Aubrey Urbanowicz WHSV on Facebook and Twitter.

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