Rain, Finally, But Will It Be Too Much Rain?
Wednesday's rain is welcomed with open arms after our dry spell.
Thursday and Friday will dry out but this weekend we are keeping our eyes on a very slow moving system coming out of the Gulf.
This Low will become cut-off. We call this a Cut-Off Low, when a low pressure system becomes cut off from any sort of flow, and it just sits and spins over the same area putting down a lot of rain.
It's not until some sort of upper level steering will come along and pick up the closed off system and move it through.
This is from our Euro (European) forecast model and this shows the system at 500mb which is about 18,000 feet.
This clearly shows how the low is closed, and by itself with nothing to steer it along.
Right now, it looks like Saturday will still be a fairly mild day but there will be enough instability to set off some thunderstorms through the say. This is actually just the pre-cursor to the weekend's rain event. The more sunshine that breaks through the clouds Saturday the better chances and stronger thunderstorms we'll see. At this point we are not expecting anything severe but we will keep our eyes on it.
Right now, the rain from the closed system will start streaming in as we get into late Saturday afternoon. This timing could change, sometimes they slow down more than anticipated but other than a few sunny hours early Saturday morning, we're looking at a busy day.
Rain continues through Sunday, and it looks like the heaviest will be Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
Here is a look at the same Euro model for Monday early afternoon. Notice that low is right over us. Still lingering rain for Monday.
It looks like the low will start to move out late on Monday, but we are going to be cloudy and cooler for Tuesday as this slow mover heads up the coast and hits New England as a pretty strong storm.
Oh did I not mention the winds yet?
I'd look for windy conditions Sunday and Monday. Maybe Tuesday also. Guess what, the western facing slopes could also pick up a little wintry mix or snow Sunday night with come chilly temperatures! How about that for the end of April?
So how much rain are we looking at?
Tuesday we were looking at 1”-2” with locally higher amounts, but that's also a little early to be estimating totals, especially since we thought there was a good chance they would increase.
This is storm total precip amounts put together by the Storm Prediction Center. This is something we do agree with. From Saturday through Monday morning yes, we could see over 3” of rain. And yes, these totals could even go up!
Especially in the areas where we see thunderstorms on Saturday. We will for sure have to keep our eye on the potential for flooding over the weekend.
Stay Dry! We'll post another update on Friday.