Some Wicked Fall Weather For Thursday 1017

After some rather quiet weather lately Thursday could be a rather interesting weather day.

As a strong low pressure system moves across the Greak Lakes area into the Ohio Valley it's going to make itself known in our area on Thursday.

Most noticeably will be the winds. It's already going to be a windy day, which is going to help bring some warm and semi-unstable air into the area. This is ahead of a pretty strong cold front. The good news is that this system is going to basically weaken as it moves over our area Thursday night instead of strengthen.

The Storm Prediction Center has us outlined in the "Slight Risk" of severe storms for Thursday, and this means we have a 15% chance of seeing storms become severe. (Winds over 58 mph)

Although it doesn't sound like much, anytime the SPC had your area outlined, it's something to pay attention to.

We do have the potential to see strong to damaging winds tomorrow as this line of showers or even some storms moves through.

What happens is strong winds aloft, or in the upper levels of the atmosphere, anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 feet high can be brought down to the surface with rain and storms. As rain falls and thunderstorms weaken and collapse, those strong winds aloft are brought down to the ground.

Here is a brief look at one of our forecast models. The image on the left shows the winds so we are looking at some pretty breezy winds from the southeast. The arrows show the direction the winds are coming from. On the far right the graphic shows estimated precipitation at that time, which is late afternoon. What I'm looking at is in the middle. Notice that little box with the red? Those are winds at 700 millibars or about 10,000 feet high. Those winds are coming in VERY strong from the southwest. That's what we call a low level jet. Which is a strong, steady stream of warm moist air.

It's those winds that can be transported down to the ground. So yes we are looking at some showers, and even some strong storms. But it's going to be the winds that could cause some issues Thursday especially around that drive time home and into the early evening so be careful out there.

Follow Meteorologist Aubrey Urbanowicz WHSV on Facebook and Twitter.

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