UPDATE: The Storm Prediction Center has updated it's severe risk outline. As stated below we were looking at some storms on Wednesday, while a couple could become wsevere we are not looking at an outbreak of severe weather. Here is the latest for today (Tuesday) and Wednesday.
For today we are on the outer edge of the "Slight" risk threat.
Think of it more as a possible risk.
Although seeing any severe storms today is fairly unlikely.
There will be some severe weather to our south, and as those storms start to decay and move northward, can can catch some of that heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
The real chance comes Wednesday as a warm front slides just north of the area. Being in the warm sector, and with higher dew points, that can lead to greater instability. The main threat is going to be some thunderstorms with heavy rainfall- and it's not impossible for a couple of those to become severe. As far as a tornado threat, while it's extremely low, I wouldn't call it a zero threat.
The greater threat would lie east of our area, but sometimes with a large storm system you can get these circulations that can spin up. Again, a very low chance but not zero. Our greatest risk is still FLOODING by far. That risk is going to be highly enhanced tonight and Wednesday. Previous blog post below:
The rain has continues! This is all ahead of a STRONG storm system, coupled with an intense upper level jet creating a tornado outbreak.
This is a look at the system as of Monday night.
Some of these tornado reports are duplicates, as sometimes a single tornado is reported multiple times.
Also sometimes the number grows as ground survey crews head out and survey the damage.
This takes time, so final numbers won't be ready for a few days.
In fact in between the time I updated the graphic, and am writing this section, the reported tornadoes has increased to 40 for Monday, and I'm also listening to live coverage in Alabama and tornado warnings are increasing by the minute, with more and more "confirmed on the ground." (Update: By Tuesday morning, there were 85 reports of tornadoes on Monday)
For us, we are not in any sort of risk outline that is put out by the Storm Prediction Center. Why? The storm system will weaken and slow down by the time it closes in on our area, and the upper level energy will weaken as well.
Now we are looking at some thunderstorm possible on Wednesday, and we could see some strong/gusty winds. Is it impossible to see a severe storm? No, but are not looking at a large severe threat. Our severe threat is FLOODING.
The entire area will be under a flash flood watch as of Tuesday evening, and this will continue through all day Wednesday.
A watch means that conditions are favorable for whatever the threat is- this threat being flash flooding.
We are looking at heavy rain, and possibly the heaviest rain Tuesday night, and overnight.
Remember, do not drive over water that is covering or partially covering the road.
Especially at night, you don't know how deep that water is.
I bet you're thinking, "Oh I can make it".
Well, it only takes 6" of water for you to lose control of your vehicle, this is how we end up with water rescues. For other reference it takes the same amount of rushing water to sweep you away if you were walking through flood waters, only 6"!
These are extremely dangerous situations and when the water is flowing fast, it doesn't have to be very deep to sweep you or your vehicle away.
Please, do not attempt to drive over water.
So by Thursday, again we are looking at 2"-4" of rain throughout the area with some locally higher amounts possible.
This is some substantial rain, with Tuesday and Wednesday being the rainiest of the week- but the heaviest rain looks to hold off until Tuesday evening at the earliest.
This system will slowly rotate out of the area Thursday night and temperatures will cool behind it.
Stay safe everyone, and don't drive over water covered roads.