UPDATE: To the Rainy Weekend 4/20

The latest update to the forecast for our weekend soaker.

UPDATE: Weekend Rain Storm, and Did They Say Snow??

Here is the latest and greatest from the WHSV weather team. After some disagreement from the models on Thursday, which just gave me a headache honestly, I think we have finally agreed on a track. Let me also mention that East Coast Coastal storms can be a big pain when it comes to forecasting. As with any East Coast System, we will have to monitor it's progression because we all know Mother Nature likes to change her mind. But this is how we see it:

The first is the cold front moving through the area Saturday night. This will bring widespread showers and storms through the day Saturday and most of the storms should be late afternoon into about dinnertime. We may receive a break from the rain occasionally Saturday night, but it's not over with.

The second system is the Closed-off low pressure system over the Gulf.

The track of this Gulf Low pressure system, will be to skirt up the coast of the Carolina's, very slowly I might add.

As we mentioned Thursday on air, there were two possible track scenarios.

 

This one is taking the more inland track, meaning more rain for us.

Now as it moves up the coast Sunday, it will combine forces with the Low that moved through the area Saturday.  

 

It will continue slightly northward and then retrograde, or backtrack through Pennsylvania by Monday, keeping rain in the forecast.



 

Here is a look at the European (Euro) model for Sunday night. This model has been very consistent with this storm over the last few days.

 

As others have brought it more out to see, this one kept the rain in the forecast and is the one I've been leaning towards all week. See how tight those white lines are together? That shows the pressure of the storm, the closer together those lines are, the windier it will be. I would not be surprised to see some wind advisories issued for Monday. Traveling on the roads Monday could get a little tricky with those winds.

As these two systems collide, it looks like that will be when we can see the heaviest rain late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

Leftover showers are likely through Monday but it looks like that activity would be scattered and probably more likely for the Northern Valley.

And how about those snow showers? For the western slopes, very likely. Combine the cooler temperatures with the moisture, and then you add the very strong winds. It's possible those snow showers could make their way into the Valley. Early Monday morning and again on Tuesday is when those are possible. A little too far out now to say for sure. But the problem this could pose for West Virgina is heavy wet snow on trees with leaves. Meaning down trees, just like we saw in October.

So how much rain?

It's likely going to be a tight gradient. So where Highland county and south western Augusta county may get the least. The rest of the Valley is looking at 2” to 2.5” of rain by Monday morning. I think many areas will see 3”+ of rain especially along the Blue Ridge and in the Northern Valley. Sometimes as a forecaster, you just have a gut feeling about some storms. I've honestly been leaning towards the 3"+ total for a few days now for most of the Valley. I could be wrong, but that's how I see it.

Just in case you were wondering, the latest in the spring the Valley has seen snow, is April 30th. And that was 1” in 1925.

AUrbanowicz@whsv.com

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