We Need Rain!
So things had been going pretty well precipitation wise so far early this summer.
Take a look at the US Drought monitor, which comes out every Thursday.
This is from June 26th and you can see that most of Virginia is white, meaning we're good.
Then you see what happened was, we couldn't get but maybe a pop up thunderstorm over some isolated areas.
The surface dried out extremely quickly especially with the heat. According to our records at in Harrisonburg we haven't received anything over 1/100th of an inch since June 18th.
The heat continued and the area quickly dried out.
Here's a look at the newest drought monitor for July 5th, that came out today.
You can see how quickly we became "Abnormally Dry."
So no we are not in a drought, we are just extremely dry.
And the heat doesn't help.
Even with some pop up thunderstorms many areas aren't receiving much measurable rain, everything is evaporating too quickly.
There's some good news on the horizon though!
A cold front to our north will push into the area over the weekend.
This will also stall out over the area through the middle of next week and that should pump some good moisture into the area.
Take a look at what we call QPF's. Or Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.
This is put out by NOAA and this is their estimate on rainfall.
This would be From Sunday night through Tuesday for our area. Notice the better chances to see more rain to the south and less of a chance to the north.
Their estimates put us up to about .75" for the Northern Valley up to about 1.25" of rain for the Central to Southern Valley. We'll have to see how much moisture this system can gather as it starts to push closer on Sunday.
As far as the heat? This is technically our first and only Heat Wave we've seen this year. A heat wave is three or more days of 90 degrees or above.
As of today, July 5th this is our 8th day of the heat wave. We will see temperatures above 90 through Sunday and as long as the forecast holds, that will be one of the longest heat wave on record. 11 days. The current records stand at 17 days in August of 1900 and 13 days in September of 1900. So 1900 was a pretty hot year, especially late in the summer.
We've only broken one record with this heat wave, that was the night of the Derecho. We hit 104 degrees breaking the record of 97 in 1927.
Friday is not looking to break a record, but it's not impossible. We are forecasting 99 with the record of 101 set in 1999.
Saturday it looks like we will almost for sure break a record, that being 99 set in 1977. We are forecasting 102.
So the heat is almost over with, we will return to the mid to lower 80s next week with hopefully some good rain, because we need it.