Who Wants More Rain?
If you're looking for more rain, we have it in the forecast! That's the good news. The bad news: the chance for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms will come along with it.
We will be watching a very slow moving front drop south through Pennsylvania and into our area Wednesday through Thursday night. The front will provide some lift in our very unstable atmosphere helping to fire up thunderstorms.
The latest model runs and numbers from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center suggest that the majority of the rain is going to hold off until the second half of the work week, favoring Thursday and Friday.
Wednesday shows a total accumulation of less than 0.25". It is important to remember that this does not account for a strong thunderstorm, which can easily dump significantly more rain in a short amount of time (Anyone in Harrisonburg saw this last Saturday). Thursday, we can expect closer to a half of an inch. Then, between Friday and Saturday it looks like we could pick up between 0.75" to one inch. In total, the rest of this week, many areas could easily see more than an inch of rain.
These totals are put out as a guide from the National Weather Service, but this does seem to fall in line with our thinking. The movement of the cold front will be the big player for our area. How slowly it moves, when it moves through, and how far south it goes, will impact us a significantly.
The farther south the front drops, the more likely we will be dry for the weekend!
A lot of this rain is going to come from thunderstorms, which makes it difficult to say exactly how much is going to fall in any one area. Some areas will get luckier than others :(
Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to turn severe, especially on Wednesday afternoon and evening when we will have our most unstable atmosphere. With this much rain and the potential for damaging winds associated with the storms, it will be important to stay close to TV3 for weather updates through the end of the week.
Stay safe and hopefully your garden gets a drink!