Winter Continues Well Into March 3/18

Another snow storm into the middle of March, so how long will winter continue?

Here are the latest snowfall totals I have from Sunday night/Monday. This all falls well within our forecasted range of 2"-4" for the Valley and up to 7" in the higher elevations.

Snowfall Totals
Harrisonburg
2"
Elkton
4"
Buffalo Gap
2"
Stanley
3.5"
Fishersville
3/4"

Sp. Springs
4"
Franklin
4.5"
Bridgewater
2"
Bergton
5"
Ft. Seybert
5"
Timberville
2.5"
Old Fields
4"
Tenth Legion
2.5"
Winchester
2"
Luray
4"
Edinburg
2.4"

 

As I write this we are less than 36 hours from the official start of spring Wednesday morning at 7:02 am, and yet there is snow on the ground and a light freezing drizzle outside.

What is going on?

Well winter isn't over yet.

Thursday is going to be the coldest day this week.

The storm system that just moved through is going to rotate over New England and send a trough of cold air in, the coldest on Thursday.

Here is a look at one model for surface temperatures at 8am on Thursday morning.

The white line is the 32 degree temperature line, or freezing mark. And look at how far south that gets!

I've been saying for the last week or so that things look to stay cold at least through the end of the month and that still holds true.

We can put together a 5-7 day forecast with decreasing accuracy towards the 7th day. Long range forecasts are useful as far as temperature trends.

I can't tell you exactly what the temperature will be on March 31st, but I can tell you if it stays cold, or does the pattern break and the jet stream lift, bringing in warmer air.

As far as more snow? Yes, we have that in the forecast for Sunday into Monday. There is another storm likely to develop but the track is still a bit unknown. I think there is good potential here and it is something we need to watch, I said earlier tonight, don't put the shovels away just yet!

And looking right through the end of the month, even the first few days of April temperatures look to stay well below average.  (Average this time of year is low/mid 50s).

This next picture is not of surface air, but at 500mb which is about 18,000 feet feet high on Saturday morning, March 30th.

Notice how the 540 line, what we call the rain snow line, is just to our north.

However winds are from the northwest, and that is another cool trough settling in.

So if you are waiting to plant, I'd hold off at least well into April unless you want to count on losing the plants.

Let's see if we can get some mild temperatures in here for April at least!

Follow Meteorologist Aubrey Urbanowicz WHSV on Facebook and Twitter.

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