NOAA 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

By: Josh Knight Email
By: Josh Knight Email

On June 1, just over a week, the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season begins. It's time to get ready, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released their outlook for the season.

For the six month season lasting through November, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a near average season. With 70 percent confidence NOAA expects 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes, categories 3, 4, or 5.

An average season would be 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Sea Surface Temperatures in the Tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea, an area dubbed the main development region, are near average, which lends to hurricane development.

Wind shear and cooler than average eastern Atlantic sea surface temperatures are working to limit hurricane formation.

Finally, the potential for the development of El Nino towards the end of summer and fall would increase shear and ultimately limit the development of hurricanes.

It is important to remember, we don't need a lot of storms to make it a bad season, we only need one to come through our area, now is the time to get ready.

Next week, May 27- June 2, is national Hurricane Preparedness Week and supplies will be tax free.


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