Virginia sees rise in COVID-19 cases after technical error delays release
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As of Thursday, May 7, Virginia has had 21,570 total cases of COVID-19, including confirmed lab tests and clinical diagnoses, according to the Virginia Department of Health.
No numbers were ever reported by the department on Wednesday,
with their "overnight process to compile all of the investigation and laboratory report data."
Health commissioner Dr. Norm Oliver said in
that his team was working very hard to get the issue fixed.
But without data for Wednesday, calculating daily changes on Thursday requires simply averaging the most recently reported numbers.
Nonetheless, Virginia saw a steadily growing rise in cases up through the start of May, climbing from 2,000 cases on Friday, April 3, and by May 1, hitting nearly 17,000 total cases. So far in May, Virginia – which had been ranked among states with the lowest per capita testing – has significantly ramped up its testing capacity, and increased testing has, in part, led to more positive cases detected, though daily increases appear to be leveling off.
From April 30 to May 1, new cases in Virginia rose by 1,055 alongside
for the health department to start reporting total tests administered rather than people tested (though they switched to reporting both over the weekend). Then, from Friday to Saturday, cases rose by 830, and from Saturday to Sunday, 940. From Sunday to Monday, 821 new positive results were submitted to the state, and from Monday to Tuesday, the total of new daily cases was 764.
From Tuesday to Thursday, including Wednesday which had no data reported, cases rose by a total of 1,314, which would come out to an average of around 650 cases a day.
Virginia's projected peak, according to most data modeling, should have been last week or this week, and the curve appears to now be flattening, which is why the governor is looking to May 15 based on current data.
However, a full sense of Virginia's cases had been hard to gauge when, until last Friday, less than one percent of Virginians had been tested, falling well below the national testing average.
On April 23, Gov. Northam
, based on comprehensive testing, a steady supply of PPE, and requirements on open hospital capacity.
Those guidelines, based on federal guidance from the White House, called for 14 days of declining daily case totals before Virginia could enter Phase 1. The governor
that the benchmark is based on a 14-day trend downward – not necessarily broken by one or two days with an increase.
This week, Gov. Northam
, with current trends showing daily case totals starting to fall and Virginia's hospital capacity and PPE supplies steady.
As testing increases, the rate of tested Virginians who received positive results is also starting to slowly drop, and Northam says that percentage will be a main factor considered too.
By May 7, the Virginia Department of Health had received reports of 20,537 confirmed and 1,033 probable cases of COVID-19 across the commonwealth.
"Probable" cases are cases that were diagnosed by a doctor based on symptoms and exposure without a test – also known as clinical diagnoses.
Those positive test results are out of 136,558 total tests administered in Virginia, which were between 122,119 unique people. (
that around 10% of people get tested more than once, so the state now reports both total tests and total people tested).
Tests from Monday to Tuesday increased by more than 5,000. From Tuesday to Thursday, there were 8,620 new tests.
Overall, considering testing numbers and positive results, about 15.7% of Virginians who have been tested have received positive results. The recent increase in testing has already brought that percentage point down from over 17% last week – and that number is a key to reopening on schedule, Gov. Northam
.
At this point, 2,995 Virginians have been hospitalized due to the disease caused by the virus, and at least 769 have died of causes related to the disease - and increase of 56 deaths since Tuesday.
The hospitalization and death numbers are the totals confirmed by the Virginia Department of Health, which are always delayed by several days due to the logistics of medical facilities reporting information to local health districts, when then report it to the state health department.
The
shows a lot of detail by locality, including hospitalizations and deaths for each city or county, and will soon be updated to break the data down by zip code as well.
The hospitalization numbers are cumulative — they represent the total number of people hospitalized due to the disease throughout the outbreak and not the total number currently in the hospital. For current hospitalization stats,
.
In our area, as of May 7, there were at least 55 confirmed cases in Augusta County, 552 cases in Harrisonburg, 310 cases in Rockingham County, 122 cases in Page County, 213 cases in Shenandoah County, 14 cases in Staunton, 20 cases in Waynesboro, 2 cases in Highland County, 147 cases in Frederick County, 61 cases in Winchester, and 8 cases in Rockbridge County, along with 5 in Lexington.
Part of the Harrisonburg number, which has the most confirmed cases in our region, comes from
, where the Virginia Department of Health and UVA Health collaborated to test every resident and staff member, finding 81 residents and 12 staff members positive.
By Tuesday, May 5, the facility had
due to coronavirus.
A separate outbreak in Harrisonburg,
, has resulted in at least 25 positive cases, according to the Virginia Department of Corrections.
Another involves
as of April 30. The health district has not publicly identified LCS as an outbreak site, but the number of cases they have confirmed to employees meets the VDH definition of a congregate setting outbreak. Since that date, the company has ceased providing updates on their employee hotline.
In Page County, which went from 30 cases on April 23 to 100 as of April 30 and is now up to 122, a large part is accounted for from an outbreak at
, where 59 residents tested positive for the virus amid an outbreak.
As of May 7,