Virginia COVID-19 cases rise by 951, percent positivity keeps dropping

As of Thursday, June 4, Virginia has had 47,856 total cases of COVID-19, including confirmed lab tests and clinical diagnoses, according to the Virginia Department of Health.

That's a rise of 951 cases since Wednesday, out of 12,527 newly reported tests, which comes out to 7.6% of the newest tests coming back positive – a significantly lower proportion than the current total state average.

Virginia officials have said all decisions about moving into each phase of reopening, or increasing restrictions in the case of potential spikes, are based on 7-day and 14-day trends in the data – and those trends have been showing good news recently.

With the trends showing percent positivity heading down and testing heading up in Virginia, Governor Ralph Northam

of his plan for reopening.

Most of Virginia – excluding Northern Virginia and Richmond – will hit the point at which restaurants can reopen indoor dining with 50% capacity, gyms and fitness centers can reopen indoor classes with 30% capacity, and more outlined in

.

The

that went into effect across Virginia on May 29 will remain in effect for Phase 2.

Over the past week, there were 1,078 newly reported cases (at a 12.6% positivity rate) from Friday to Saturday, 996 (at an 8.4% positivity rate) from Saturday to Sunday, 791 (at an 8% positivity rate) from Sunday to Monday, 841 (at a 12.4% positivity rate) from Monday to Tuesday, and 666 (at a 5.4% positivity rate) from Tuesday to Wednesday.

Most tests are PCR tests that take several days to process, so the test results reported each day reflect what the situation in Virginia looked like a few days before. Antibody tests process results faster, but test whether someone has had the virus in the past, not necessarily if they currently have it.

Over the past few weeks, total cases have generally been increasing by around 700 to 1,000 a day, but testing has significantly increased, so the moving 7-day average, which tracks the number of cases confirmed as a ratio of the amount of testing, has been heading down.

Virginia has been meeting the governor's benchmark of steady PPE supplies and open hospital capacity for around three weeks now, with 4,162 hospital beds available and no Virginia hospitals reporting any supply problems – although

are reporting PPE supply problems. The governor has said in recent press conferences that those facilities need to reach out to the Virginia Department of Emergency Management to request more supplies from the state's stockpile.

The commonwealth increased from around 2,000 tests a day in late April to the 5,000 range in the start of May, and was steadily hitting around 10,000 a day by the end of May, which Dr. Karen Remley, head of Virginia's testing task force, has said is the goal for

.

By June 4, the Virginia Department of Health had received reports of 45,620 confirmed and 2,236 probable cases of COVID-19 across the commonwealth.

"Probable" cases are cases that were diagnosed by a doctor based on symptoms and exposure without a test – also known as clinical diagnoses.

Those positive test results are out of 394,066 total tests administered in Virginia, which included 351,354 PCR tests and 42,712 antibody tests (The Dept. of Health announced in May that

.)

This week, from Sunday to Monday, 9,285 new PCR tests were reported, as well as 542 antibody tests, and then from Monday to Tuesday, 6,321 new PCR tests and 453 new antibody tests were reported. From Tuesday to Wednesday, there were 11,308 newly reported PCR tests and 923 new antibody tests. From Wednesday to Thursday, 11,157 new PCR tests and 1,370 new antibody tests were added to the state total.

As Virginia's community testing events offered by local health districts have increased, state health officials say the goal is to get tests to the areas in most need of them, with at-risk communities identified by the state health department (several of these events have been held in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County). Testing events sponsored by health districts are not turning anyone away.

Overall, considering testing numbers and positive results, about 12.1% of Virginians who have been tested have received positive results. At the start of May, that percentage was standing steadily around 17%, but with increased testing, it's come down over time. However, some localities have higher percentages, as outlined in our "local cases" section below.

At this point, 4,957 Virginians have been hospitalized due to the disease caused by the virus (a rise of 73 from Wednesday), and at least 1,445 have died of causes related to the disease.

The hospitalization and death numbers are totals confirmed by the Virginia Department of Health, which are always delayed by several days due to the logistics of medical facilities reporting information to local health districts, which then report it to the state health department.

The hospitalization numbers are cumulative — they represent the total number of people hospitalized due to the disease throughout the pandemic and not the total number currently in the hospital. For current hospitalization stats,

.

The

shows a lot of detail by locality, including hospitalizations and deaths for each city or county, and are

, if you want to track cases on a neighborhood level.

Overall, according to the Virginia Department of Health's June 3 breakdown, 394,066 tests have been run for the virus in Virginia, with 47,856 positive results.

The department's breakdown and location map, available to the public

, shows the number of cases confirmed each day, number of people tested, total hospitalizations, total deaths, demographic breakdowns, and testing numbers, as well as breakdowns by health district.

Here's a breakdown of cases for our region as of 9 a.m. on June 4. You can find the breakdown for the entire state in the chart at the bottom of this article.

• Augusta County - 122 (+7 from Wednesday)

• Buena Vista - 13

• Harrisonburg - 814 (+5 from Wednesday)

• Highland County - 3

• Lexington - 7

• Rockbridge County - 18 (-1 from Wednesday)

• Rockingham County - 555 (+7 from Wednesday)

• Staunton - 52 (+2 from Wednesday)

• Waynesboro - 47

15, with 6 in long-term care facilities, 1 in a healthcare setting, 6 in congregate settings, 1 in a correctional facility, and 1 in an educational setting | 502 cases associated with outbreaks

10,374

15.7%

• Clarke County - 31 (+2 from Wednesday)

• Frederick County - 384 (+6 from Wednesday)

• Page County - 231

• Shenandoah County - 470 (+5 from Wednesday)

• Warren County - 217 (+13 from Wednesday)

• Winchester - 215 (+17 from Wednesday)

18, with 8 in long-term care facilities, 3 in healthcare settings, 6 in congregate settings, and 1 in a correctional facility | 499 cases associated with outbreaks

12,642

12.2%

• Albemarle County - 213 (+9 from Wednesday)

• Charlottesville - 131 (+3 from Wednesday)

• Fluvanna County - 94 (+2 from Wednesday)

• Greene County - 34

• Louisa County - 84 (+3 from Wednesday)

• Nelson County - 17

10, with 4 in long-term care facilities, 2 in correctional facilities, 3 in congregate settings, and 1 in an educational setting | 157 cases associated with outbreaks

11,509

5%

• Culpeper County - 732 (+5 from Wednesday)

• Fauquier County - 334 (+5 from Wednesday)

• Madison County - 41

• Orange County - 115 (+4 from Wednesday)

• Rappahannock County - 15 (+1 from Wednesday)

7, with 2 in long-term care facilities, 1 in a healthcare setting, and 4 in congregate settings | 113 cases associated with outbreaks

8,660

14.3%

As numbers have climbed in parts of the Shenandoah Valley, much of the increase has been attributable to outbreaks within particular facilities. By June 4, the Central Shenandoah Health District had identified 15 outbreaks and the Lord Fairfax Health District had 18.

Health department officials have not specified the majority of the locations of our outbreaks, because the Virginia Department of Health has interpreted Virginia code as treating facilities the same as "persons," meaning their anonymity has to be protected. So information about outbreaks is only released to the public if a facility grants permission for that to be released, and that has not been often.

Of the outbreaks in our area, several have been confirmed at long-term care centers, including at

;

" target="_blank">Skyview Springs, where there have been 16 confirmed deaths

;

, where Augusta Health has confirmed a "COVID situation" but no exact numbers have been provided;

, with at least 5 cases among residents and staff as of June 3; and three outbreaks in Shenandoah County, including one at an unnamed nursing home and two at unnamed assisted living facilities.

The largest of those outbreaks was the one at

, where 81 residents and 12 staff members tested positive for COVID-19 in April. By Tuesday, May 5, the facility

due to coronavirus. By a little later in May,

.

In Page County, the outbreak at

resulted in 59 residents and 23 staff members testing positive for the virus. By May 13,

" target="_blank">16 people there had died of COVID-19-related causes

. The facility has 115 residents total.

Dr. Colin Greene, with the Lord Fairfax Health District, told WHSV in May that the Skyview Springs outbreak was the only major outbreak in the Page County area.

However, he said they were monitoring five active outbreaks in Shenandoah County. Due to Virginia code preventing the identification of facilities with outbreaks, he could not identify the exact locations, but said two were at businesses, two at assisted living facilities, and one at a nursing home.

Outbreaks have also been confirmed at

,

, with at least 25 positive cases, and

, which had at least six cases by the end of April but then stopped providing updates on their employee hotline so that media outlets would not have access to the information, which was not publicly provided.

On May 26,

for COVID-19, as the outbreak identified inside a correctional facility in the Lord Fairfax Health District. A day later, that number was up to 18 positive tests.

New Market Poultry Products, which has more than 100 employees working on a daily basis,

– though an exact number was not provided and no update has come since then.

None of the other Shenandoah Valley poultry plants have released any information about COVID-19 cases to the public, but

and Cargill in Dayton has confirmed the death of one employee due to COVID-19 – though never any information on the number of cases at the facility.

Poultry plants and other meat processing facilities have been hotspots for the virus across the country and a focus of Gov. Northam's in Virginia. State health commissioner Dr. Norm Oliver has also referenced the situation at poultry plants in Harrisonburg leading to a disproportionate number of cases among the Latino community in the Shenandoah Valley, though, again the facilities themselves have released no information publicly.

The only exact number for poultry workers that has been provided is that

had tested positive.

Many of the local outbreaks that do not have confirmed locations have been identified in congregate settings, which could include workplaces, apartment complexes, churches, gyms, or any setting with a group of people in one place. While WHSV has received reports from viewers about specific stores, for instance, if the business does not provide consent for their information to be shared, the health department cannot confirm any information about cases there.

Of the state's 4,957 total hospitalizations, at least 127 have been in the Central Shenandoah Health District. Of those, 4 have been in Augusta County, 1 in Buena Vista, 60 in Harrisonburg, 1 in Rockbridge County, 54 in Rockingham County, 5 in Staunton, and 2 in Waynesboro.

In the Lord Fairfax Health District, there have been at least 127 hospitalizations. Forty-five of those have been in Shenandoah County and 26 in Page County.

As far as deaths, there have been 22 reported in Shenandoah County, 24 in Page County, two in Augusta County, 23 in Harrisonburg, and six in Rockingham County.

Deaths, like all health department data, are reported by a person's listed residence.

Dr. Norm Oliver, the state's health commissioner, has said that it often takes several days before local health districts are able to enter death information into the state database. Dr. Laura Kornegay, director of the Central Shenandoah Health District, told WHSV that deaths first have to be reported to them by medical facilities, which is a major cause for delays that have often been seen on the numbers reported for our area.

Dr. Kornegay also explained that if someone has tested positive for COVID-19, that's what goes on their death certificate. Those death certificates have a space to list secondary causes of death, and that's where ongoing health issues like heart disease and cancer are listed. Some people have accused medical facilities of artificially inflating death tolls by doing that, but it's the same process by which flu deaths are reported every year.

Wondering about the number of people who have recovered from COVID-19 in Virginia? Recovery information is not required to be sent to the Department of Health, so there is no accurate way to track that data for every single confirmed case. Individual health districts may track cases as "active" and "non-active," but that data is not published anywhere in aggregate.

But there is a way to track the number of patients who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 and have since been discharged – effectively tracking how many people have recovered from the most severe cases.

The Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association updates their own dashboard of data each day on hospital-specific statistics, including bed availability, ventilator usage, and more. Their

indicates that, as of June 4, at least 6,284 COVID-19 patients have been discharged from the hospital.

Unlike the VDH data that reports cumulative hospitalizations, their data on hospitalizations reflects people currently hospitalized for COVID-19 (whether with confirmed or pending cases), and that number is at 1,266.

The data used by the VDH to report

hospitalizations is based on information reported in hospital claims. On the other hand, the numbers reported by the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association are based on a current census from hospitals, which provides a separate data set.

In the part of

we cover, there have been 13 cases in Grant County, 39 cases in Hardy County, and 15 cases in Pendleton County.

The

is updating with the latest statewide numbers somewhere between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m. each day. In recent days, that has steadily creeped closer to 10 a.m.

The numbers that appear on that list are based on the cases that had been submitted to the department by 5 p.m. the previous day, so there is always some lag between when local health districts announce positive test results and when the department's numbers reflect those new results.

Our Virginia counties are primarily served by the Central Shenandoah Health District, which covers Augusta, Bath, Highland, Rockbridge and Rockingham counties, as well as the cities of Buena Vista, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton and Waynesboro; and the Lord Fairfax Health District, which covers Shenandoah, Page, Frederick, Warren, and Clarke counties, as well as the city of Winchester.

Most of Virginia officially entered

on May 15 and all of Virginia was in Phase 1 by May 29, but the commonwealth remains under a series of public health orders and executive orders designed to slow the spread of COVID-19.

, which closed many non-essential businesses across Virginia and established Virginia's 10-person gathering limit, no longer applies in its original form, with businesses steadily re-opening, but the 10-person gathering limit is still in place and still enforceable.

, the 'Stay at Home' order signed by Northam on March 30, is now a 'Safer at Home' order, instructing all Virginians to continue staying home as the safest way to prevent COVID-19's spread and specifically telling Virginians vulnerable to the virus to stay home except for essential needs.

On Friday, May 29,

went into effect, making it mandatory for almost all Virginians to wear face coverings when entering businesses. You can learn how that will be enforced

.

Virginia's state of emergency, which was set until June 10, was extended by Governor Northam on May 26 to run indefinitely.

The Virginia Supreme Court's judicial emergency, which suspended all non-essential, non-emergency court hearings, expired on May 17 and

on Monday, May 18. In light of that, with some eviction cases resuming, Gov. Northam's office

while still with income affected by COVID-19.

DMV offices in Virginia began gradually reopening on Monday, May 18, and

by appointment only for specific reasons. During the closure, Virginia State Police have not been enforcing inspections and extensions have been granted to people with expiring credentials for themselves or their vehicles.

Elective procedures and related offices, like dentists, were able to resume on May 1 after Gov. Northam

.

Of the orders in place, Executive Order 53 is enforceable by law, so someone who hosts a gathering of more than 10 people can be charged with a Class 1 misdemeanor. You can learn more about what police enforcement of Northam's executive orders looks like

.

Virginia's

have been postponed by two weeks. Virginia officials are encouraging all voters to request absentee ballots.

Most people don't suffer much from COVID-19, but it can cause severe illness in the elderly and people with existing health problems.

It spreads primarily through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Those droplets may land on objects and surfaces. Other people may contract the virus by touching those objects or surfaces and then touching their eyes, nose, or mouth.

The coronavirus that causes COVID-19 can cause mild to more severe respiratory illness. In a small proportion of patients, COVID-19 can cause death, particularly among those who are older or who have chronic medical conditions. Symptoms include fever, cough, and difficulty breathing. Symptoms appear within 14 days of being exposed to an infectious person.

To lower the risk of respiratory germ spread, including COVID-19, the Virginia Department of Health encourages the following effective behaviors:

• Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. Use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer only if soap and water are not available.

• Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth.

• Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when coughing or sneezing.

• Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

• Stay home when you are sick.

• Avoid contact with sick people.

• Avoid non-essential travel.

There is currently no vaccine to prevent or antiviral medication to treat COVID-19. The best way to avoid illness is preventing exposure, which is why governments around the world have implemented Stay at Home orders.

For the latest factual information on COVID-19, you're encouraged to check both the

and the

.